EUR/USD - We have seen a powerful rally to 1.2329, which marks green wave iii and have since the 1.2329 high seen a very small retarcement. This small retracement could be green wave iv (23.6% of green wave iii), This could be all for green wave iii, but as long as resistance at the 1.2329 high protects the upside we should be looking for a slightly deeper correction towards 1.2246 for green wave iv, before we will see green wave v towards either 1.2382 (38.2% of green wave i through green wave iii) or towards 1.2447 (61.8% of green wave i Through green wave iii). This should mark the first leg of the larger correction in red wave iv.
USD/JPY - Has been rather resilient, but I still think we are going to see a rally in wave iii towards either 78.86 or 79.06 as wave iii. I think a rally to 79.06 will be a better fit, but we will have to be pacient and see what unfolds.
At no point can a break below 77.95 be accepted, as that will invalidate the count shown.
GBP/USD - Here I'm still looking for the rally towards resistance at 1.5905, from where renewed downside pressure should be expected.
In the bigger picture we are in the early parts of the downside thrust out of the big B-wave triangle that have been building since January 2009 and calls for a decline below the bottom of wave A at 1.3498.
USD/CAD - Unexpectedly broke below 1.0062, which invalidated the bullish count and calls for a third zig-zag towards 0.9995 and possibly even down to the 0.9920 - 0.9935 area, before wave 2 is finally done for a new powerful rally in wave 3.
NZD/USD - Here too the correction from 0.7797 has become much bigger than expected, but only a break above the 0.8054 high will invalidate the bearish count. It should also be noticed, that black wave ii retraced most of black wave i. That shows us the the Bulls and the Bears is almost equally strong and the tug of fight is not over yet. However a break below 0.7985 will ease the upside pressure, but it will take a break below 0.7916 to confirm that red wave ii is over and a new decline below 0.7797 is in the making.
At the current levels sell NZD ag. USD presents an excellent risk/rewards. Stops can be placed just above 0.8054 and the potential is a move to below 0.7797. You don't get it much better than that.
Trading is all about taking calculated risks, where the risk is as small as possible and the reward is as big as possible and that is clearly the case here where the risk/reward ratio is 1 to 6 and that's just for a decline to 0.7797, if we break below 0.7797 as I expect the reward will be much bigger.
EUR/JPY - The rally from the important 94.09 low has been almost text-book and we should now be looking for green wave iv correcting green wave iii. The ideal target will be the 38.2% of wave iii, which comes in at 95.72 before green wave v takes over towards 96.85 (38.2% of green wave i through green wave iii) and possibly even 97.40 (61.8% of wave i through wave iii).
EUR/NZD - The jury is still out there. Is we close to finish green wave ii and see a sharp rally in green wave iii or will we break below 1.5261 for a deeper wave c of an expanded flat correction in red wave ii? It's all about which point break first. Is it 1.5261 then the expanded flat correction is the correct answer, while a break above 1.5389 while support at 1.5261 has not been broken will call for green wave iii higher towards 1.5570.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - The count shown above is the alternate count to the one I showed in my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/07/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd-usdcad.htmlThe rally from 12,522 has been quite powerful, but it will take a break above 12,977 to make this count the preferred count, however if we see a break above 12.977 we should see one last rally higher towards 13,023 before the downside pressure returns.
If we don't break above 12.977, but instead break below 12,821 and more importantly 12,725 the preferred count is the right count and should call for a continuation towards at least 12,190.
Gold - Is hoovering just below the wave-c high at 1,624.70. This high should not be broken as that would cast doubt over the B-wave triangle and could cause a rally higher towards resistance at 1.670 (not the preferred picture). Instead look for a break below 1,601 and more importantly 1,580 that would call for a new test of the all important support near 1,521.
Crude Oil - Has entered the target-zone for red wave ii and we should see downside pressure increase as red wave iii takes over for a decline towards at least 81.51. It will take a break above the 92.89 to invalidate the count above.
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