Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With the break above resistance at 130.56 we now must expect a much more complex correction developing. We should now be looking for a move higher towards the top at 133.81. This expected move higher will not be easy to break down, but we will take it step by step. I now expect support in the 130.00 - 130.10 range to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 131.31 and a break above here will add confidence in a continuation higher towards strong resistance at 133.81. That said, it will take a break below 130.00 to question the rally higher, but only a break below 128.90 will invalidate this call.

EUR/NZD

We have been trading sideways since yesterday, but as long as resistance at 1.6756 protects the upside we could see one last decline closer to 1.6634 before the next powerful rally towards 1.7047 will be seen. However, my first target at 1.7047 should only be a minor bump on the way higher as I expect this rally to very powerful. To invalidate my call for much higher levels, it would take a break below 1.6583 as a break below here will call a decline to at least 1.6440.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

After the break above important short term resistance at 126.91 I was expecting a rally higher towards 128.28. We have seen a rally beyond that point, but it is no critical in any way. A break above resistance at 129.34, would not be expected, but only a break out of the falling channel will indicate, that the wave 2 correction from 133.81 ended early and the next impulsive rally higher in wave 3 has already begun. However, if resistance at 129.34 protects the upside for a break below 127.81 and more importantly a break below 127.05 we know, that we have a top in place for a new decline towards strong support at 124.96.

EUR/NZD

We saw red wave ii of black wave v end at 1.6615 yesterday and as it would be expected of red wave iii, it was very explosive. However, I expect that it was only the first part of red wave iii and that we should soon see this rally higher continue towards 1.7109 and higher towards 1.7320. Short term I'm looking for support at 1.6810, which will ideally protect the downside for the next impulsive move higher towards resistance at 1.7109.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

When strong short term resistance at 126.91 was broken we knew, that we need a rally towards 128.28 before the next attempt to break below strong support at 124.96 will be seen. We have seen a test of 128.11 till now, and as long as support at 127.23 protects the downside I expect, that we will see one last rally higher to 128.28 before the next decline sets in. However, a break below 127.23 and more importantly a break below 126.91 will confirm, that we already has terminated the correction from 124.96 and a new test of this important support should be seen. Longer term I'm still looking for a break below 124.96 for a decline towards my ideal target near 118.73, where wave 2 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 1.

EUR/NZD

We are currently in black wave v higher from the 1.6388 low. Since the low at 1.6388 we have seen an impulsive rally to 1.6825, which marks red wave i and we are currently in red wave ii, which I expect needs one last decline to just below 1.6669 before the next rally higher towards at least 1.7109 and more likely higher towards 1.7372 in an extension in red wave iii. As long as short term resistance at 1.6825 protects the upside we are expecting the decline towards 1.6669, but a break above 1.6825 indicates, that red wave iii is already under way higher.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

With a low at 126.11 we did see a very slight break below my target at 126.15, but the following rally has broken above the bottom of wave i at 129.41 and therefore it can not be wave iv of c. Therefore I have changed my count slightly to a finished wave c and w at 126.11 and we are now in a x-wave towards 130.36 and possibly even 130.88 before the next decline towards my major wave 2 target near 118.73. Short term I'm looking for support in the 129.10 - 129.20 range for the rally higher to 130.36 and possibly even 130.88 before the next decline set in. A break below 128.79 confirms that the x-wave is over and the second zig-zag correction has begun.

EUR/NZD

The wave 3 rally just keeps moving higher and higher. We most likely ended green wave v and blue wave iii at 1.6687 and after the a very small a brief blue wave iv we saw the next move higher in blue wave v, which when it ends near 1.6921 or maybe even first at 1.7053 only will end red wave iii. As I said trying to sell EUR looking for a deeper correction could easily leave you with a loss and no chance to get onboard the train higher again. Short term I'm looking for support at 1.6726 and 1.6678 to protected the downside for the rally higher towards 1.6921 and 1.6961 as the next small targets.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

We have seen a slight break below support at 129.46, but i'm looking for even more acceleration towards the downside, as this possible wave iii of C progresses for a decline towards at least 128.80 and likely even down to 127.19. Short term we would like to see resistance at 130.31 protect the upside for the next break below 129.42 confirming the next decline towards 128.80. However even a rally towards 130.65 would not invalidate our bearish call, but we should not break above 130.65 as that would call for a new test of resistance at 131.40 before down again.

EUR/NZD

We not alone got a daily close above resistance at 1.6358 we are also have seen even more acceleration towards the upside. With the close above resistance at 1.6358 we now have a new upside target at 1.7751, but we could easily move way beyond this target longer term. As we have seen the acceleration higher getting even stronger I'm a little in doubt if green wave v is extending or we already are in blue wave v. It doesn't matter much for we shall see even more upside progress in this wave iii towards 1.6739 and possibly even higher towards 1.7045, before wave iii is done. Short term I would like to see support at 1.6464 protect the downside, but more importantly see support at 1.6392 protect the downside. A break below 1.6392 will indicate, that we have seen an extension in green wave v and blue wave iv is developing before blue wave v takes over.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Once wave e of the triangle was over we saw a very powerful rally towards the upside, just as expected. This will be the final thrust to the upside, which will terminate the entire rally from 94.10 and will be followed by a correction in wave (ii). However let's focus on were this rally is headed. Short term I expect support at 129.51 to protect the downside for the next rally higher. A rally will likely take us higher to at least 132.41 and possibly even higher to 134.17 in wave iii of 5. The ideal target for wave 5 is at 135.42.

EUR/NZD

I'm still looking for support in the 1.5300 - 1.5310 area to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.5376, which will be the first indication, that we have seen a bottom and the next rally higher is developing. However, we need a break above resistance at 1.5415 and more importantly a break above 1.5456 to confirm the bottom and the next rally higher towards 1.5575 and 1.5611. Only a break below 1.5251 will invalidate my bullish call.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The failure to break above resistance at 120.85 has preserved the downside pressure, but I still think that a bottom is very close at hand and is looking for a break above resistance at 120.85 soon to confirm the next rally higher. A break above 120.85 will open up for a rally towards 121.88 and higher towards at least 124.50. Depending on whether we have begun wave 5 higher resistance at 124.50 should be broken without much trouble or if it protects the upside our alternate triangle count comes into action for one last decline down to 121.59 before the final thrust out of the triangle towards the upside. That said, as long as resistance at 120.88 protects the upside we could see slightly more downside pressure, but at no point can a break below 118.73 be accepted, as a break below 118.73 will invalidated my bullish count and call for a decline closer to 117.05 before the next rally takes place.

EUR/NZD

I'm still looking for a break above 1.5342 to confirm, that we have seen a bottom at 1.5227 and the next powerful rally higher towards 1.5409 and1.5627 longer term. Ideally support at 1.5279 will protect the downside for the break above 1.5342, but only a break below 1.5227 will invalidate my bullish count for a push slightly lower, but the possible downside is very limited and we should stay focused towards the upside.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

 

The wave iv correction from 120.71 should be over and we are now looking for a rally past minor resistance at 120.24 to confirm that assumption for the last rally higher towards 120.71 and the ideal target near 121.28. That said, we should be aware, that the hole impulsive rally from 100.32 is coming to and end and a much bigger correction is looming. The coming wave 4 correction should at least give us a correction down to 113.54, which marks the bottom of wave four of a lessor degree. This is a very common target and will at the same time be very close to the 38.2% Fibonacci target. However, for now we should keep focus towards the upside for one last rally higher.



EUR/NZD

 

We have likely seen the bottom of green wave ii at 1.5813 and we are now looking for a break above 1.5907 as the first indication. that the bottom is in place. However, we will need a break above 1.5947 to confirm that bottom and to confirm the next rally higher towards 1.6054 and beyond towards 1.6267. As long as minor resistance at 1.5907 protects the upside we must allow for a little more downside, but we can not go below 1.5780 under any circumstance, as that would invalidate our count and call for a decline to at least 1.5703.



Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 

EUR/JPY

 

With the clear break above 119.50 we should focus on the next target for wave v of 3, which will be in the area of 121.18 - 121.34. As we are getting close to the possible top of wave 3 we should also be careful not to think, that this rally will just keep on going higher and higher, the first warning, that we have seen the top of wave 3 will be a break below 118.57 and more importantly a break below 117.63, which will call for a flat correction in wave 4 down to at least 115.99 and more likely down to 113.55. But for now we should stay focused towards the upside for a move higher towards the ideal target area between 121.18 - 121.34.



EUR/NZD

 

The warning from the "Hidden Divergence" did a perfect job, in telling us that this rally would become very powerful. We are already back at the middle of the base channel, but I'm not sure, that there will be time for a prober correction before the next move higher. The risk is we will only see a minor correction down to 1.5912 and maybe down to 1.5879 before the next move higher towards 1.6087 and 1.6217. Longer term I'm looking for a rally higher towards 1.6772, a target that will be confirmed once resistance at 1.6217 is broken.

 

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

As it is usual in wave 3 there was no time for a correction and the rally just kept moving higher towards the next target at 113.76. We could potentially be near the top for wave 3 but need a break below 113.02 and more importantly below 112.00 to confirm that wave 3 is over. As long as support at 113.02 has not been broken the uptrend in wave 3 is intact, and a test of 113.76 should be seen with potential for a move even higher towards 114.17 and 114.73. That said, this move is clearly becoming stretched and we should expect a relatively big correction soon. 

EUR/NZD

There was no time for a correction here as the rally higher towards the next target near 1.6206 took place. With a high at 1.6217 we could have seen a top, but to confirm that we need a break below support at 1.6083 and more importantly a break below 1.5962, which will confirm, that a deeper correction towards 1.5923 is taking place. We have to remember, that we are in wave 3 higher and corrections in wave 3 tend to be small and even sub-normal. As support at 1.6083 protects the downside we could see a continuation slightly higher towards 1.6261, but this rally is clearly becoming stretched and we should expect a bigger correction soon. 

Elliott Wave Analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

As we have seen a 23.6% retracement of wave i of 3 we could have seen the end of wave ii. However, it would take a break above 107.08 to ease the downside pressure and more importantly we need a break above 107.67 to confirm the bottom and at the same time indicate that wave iii of 3 is developing. That said, we shall remember that we are in wave 3 and correction during wave 3 tend to be small and even sub-normal. As long as we have not broken above 106.67 we must accept, that we could see a deeper correction of wave i down to the 38.2% retracement target at 105.04 before wave ii is finally over.

EUR/NZD

I'm still looking for wave ii to end soon as the room towards the downside is becoming very limited. Therefore I'm looking for a reversal above minor resistance at 1.5543 as the first minor clue, that a bottom is in place. However I would like to see a break above 1.5602 before I feel more confident that wave ii is indeed over and wave iii of 3 is developing towards 1.5927 and higher. The good thing is, that we know exactly where our invalidation point is. A break below 1.5390 will invalidate our count and call for a much deeper decline towards the bottom at 149.67 and maybe even lower.