Monday, January 21, 2013

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY
 
The wave iv correction from 120.71 should be over and we are now looking for a rally past minor resistance at 120.24 to confirm that assumption for the last rally higher towards 120.71 and the ideal target near 121.28. That said, we should be aware, that the hole impulsive rally from 100.32 is coming to and end and a much bigger correction is looming. The coming wave 4 correction should at least give us a correction down to 113.54, which marks the bottom of wave four of a lessor degree. This is a very common target and will at the same time be very close to the 38.2% Fibonacci target. However, for now we should keep focus towards the upside for one last rally higher.


EUR/NZD
 
We have likely seen the bottom of green wave ii at 1.5813 and we are now looking for a break above 1.5907 as the first indication. that the bottom is in place. However, we will need a break above 1.5947 to confirm that bottom and to confirm the next rally higher towards 1.6054 and beyond towards 1.6267. As long as minor resistance at 1.5907 protects the upside we must allow for a little more downside, but we can not go below 1.5780 under any circumstance, as that would invalidate our count and call for a decline to at least 1.5703.



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