With the break below minor support at 118.20 yesterday, the short term picture has become very cloudy. We are still rising within the channel, which is positive. However, the break below 118.20 made the possible wave iv of 5 overlap wave i of 5, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. Therefore we have two options at this point. The first is, that the correction from 120.12 still is ongoing, in some very complex wave 4 correction and we still need one more rally higher once complete. Secondly we could have seen the top of wave 3 already at 120.71 (a little short from the ideal target at 121.28). If we already have seen the top of wave 3 we are now looking at wave 4, which should decline down to the bottom of the wave four of one lessor degree, which means a decline to 113.54.
As we saw a break below 1.5780 yesterday, my 1-2/1-2 count was invalidated and it seems as a more complex correction in form of an expanded flat correction is ongoing from the 1.5977 high. If this is the case we should see a continuation lower towards at least 1.5703 before blue wave ii is finally over. Short term minor support at 1.5869 should protect the upside for a break below 1.5811 and more importantly a break below 1.5771, which confirms the decline towards 1.5703. However, a break above 1.5869 will call for a move closer to 1.5907 before down.
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