Monday, January 14, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY
 
After a small correction from the 120.12 high down to 118.56, I'm looking for the next rally higher towards the ideal target-area between 121.18 - 121.34 where I expect wave 3 to terminate and wave 4 to begin. A break above 119.17 will be the first indication, that we are headed higher towards 120.12 and 121.18, while a break above 119.42 confirms the rally to 120.12 and higher. The risk is a break below 118.56 and more importantly a break below 117.63 as that will indicate, that we already have seen the top of wave 3 and wave 4 is ongoing, for a correction towards at least 115.99 and likely even down to 113.55.
 

EUR/NZD
 
The correction from the 1.5977 high became slightly deeper than I expected with the test of 1.5837, but it's still a very small correction with sub-normal characters. I'm now looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.5926, which will confirm a new rally higher to 1.5977 towards the next targets at 1.6087 and at 1.6217. Longer term I'm looking for much higher levels. Short term the risk is a break below 1.5837, which will call for a deeper and more normal correction towards 1.5797 and maybe even down to 1.5747 before the next rally higher can be expected. 

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