Thursday, January 10, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY
 
There was no time for even a minor set-back yesterday. With the clear break above 115.55 we had the signal, that an important bottom was in place at 113.55 and the next rally higher had begun. Breaking above the former high at 115.99 was no problem at all and even our next target at 117.90 was broken without any trouble, which makes me conclude that this powerful rally has much more upside to cover. Therefor I have changed my count to an even more bullish count. Instead of the 115.99 high being wave 3 it is more likely, that it was only wave iii of 3 and wave iv of 3 ended at 113.55 and we are now headed higher in wave v of 3. The targets for this wave v rally is at 119.50, where wave v will be 38.2% of length of the rally from the bottom of wave i to the top of wave iii. However, we could see a move higher towards the 50% target of the length of the rally from the bottom of wave i to the top of wave iii, which would take up to 121.34. This target would make sense as it will also represent an extension of wave 3 of 200% of wave 1. Short term we could see a minor decline to 117.51 and maybe even down to 116.85, but from there the next rally higher towards 119.50 should be seen.
 

EUR/NZD
 
The odds clearly favor, that we have seen the bottom of red wave ii at 1.5506 and we should turn our focus towards the next resistance level to break, which is at 1.5841. A break above resistance at 1.5841 will confirm the bottom and call for a continuation higher towards 1.6010 and later on beyond 1.6218. The extremely deep correction in red wave ii was a bit unusual, but second waves are allowed to retrace all of the first wave, but they can never break below the bottom of the first wave, that meant we had a very clear last line of defence in 1.5445. We should also remember, that we had a "Hidden Divergence", which was validated with the break above 1.5714 and that normally tells me, that the coming rally will be very powerful, so be ready for it.

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