Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

 

 

It is still an open question whether a flat correction or a triangle is developing. Just looking at the chart the triangle possibility looks more convincing, but it would not take much to alter that outlook back towards the flat concept. So what do we do? We will hang on to the flat correction concept for now, but protecting will be tight. A failure to break below 114.10 followed by a break above 115.22 and more importantly a break above 115.55 will confirm the triangle, while a break below 114.10 and more importantly a break below 113.65 will confirm the flat correction for a decline down to at least 113.24 for before this correction is over and a new rally above 116.00 will be seen. 

 

 

EUR/NZD

 

 

Trying to pick the bottom of this correction, has been a very difficult task, even though we had a clear loss of downside momentum. Yesterday we saw a spike down to 1.5583, but the following rally does look impulsive, and all we need now is a break above 1.5751 as the first good indication that a important low is in place. However, more importantly we need a break above 1.5841 to confirm the low for a new rally higher towards 1.5975 and 1.6218. Short term I expect minor resistance at 1.5751 will protect the upside for a minor set-back towards 1.5632 before the next move higher through 1.5751 for a test of the important resistance at 1.5841. Only a break below 1.5583 will confuse the picture, but any downside below 1.5583 should be very limited.