Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY
 
The 4-wave correction is developing nicely. Wave A of the simple zig-zag correction, that we are looking for ended at 116.47 and was followed by a minimum length wave B. This wave B only corrected 38.2% of wave a and ended at 118.20. With wave A and B in place we can calculate the most likely ending point for wave C, which is at 114.57, where wave C with equal wave A in length. Normally we expect wave 4 to be complex in its structure, but as we had a big flat wave 2, we expect wave 4 to be a simple zig-zag correction due to the Elliott Wave Principle of alternation. Once this wave 4 is over we are looking for the final move higher in the sequence from 94.10. The first target for this wave final wave is at 124.55, if we do see wave 4 ending at 114.57.
 

EUR/NZD
 
I do think that blue wave ii have terminated or is very close to terminate, however a break above 1.5868 is needed to confirm that for the next rally higher towards resistance at 1.5977, which should be broken without much trouble next time, for a continuation higher towards 1.6267, which is the minimum target for blue wave iii. That said, as long as minor resistance at 1.5868 is protecting the upside, there is a risk of a slightly deeper correction towards 1.5742 before this blue wave ii correction finally terminates and blue wave iii takes over.  

No comments:

Post a Comment