Sunday, February 17, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD and Gold

 EUR/USD

First see my last post on EUR/USD here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/01/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd-dji.html

EUR/USD made it to 1.3711,where it has topped out for now, but have we seen the top of wave E of the major B-wave triangle, that began way back in October 2008? I might well be the case, but if the top is in place we will soon see a much more powerful decline through the support-line at 1.3275. As long as the support-line at 1.3275 protects the downside we must accept the possibility of a new upswing towards 1.3792 and maybe even higher towards the triangle resistance-line near 1.4600.
If we have seen the top of wave E we should have started a new major down leg to below 1.1842 for a move towards 1.0024 as the ideal target.

 GBP/USD

Continues to pressure the downside and the break of support at 1.5600 is something to be noticed, but my preferred count has not yet been invalidated, as only a break below 1.5234 will do that. Until a break below 1.5234 is seen I will keep the above count as my preferred count and look for a break above 1.5691 and more importantly a break above 1.5879, which will confirm that a bottom is in place for a new rally higher towards important resistance at 1.6381 and higher in wave C

Gold

Has again catched everybody's eye, but this time not in a positive way. The break below 1,652 and more importantly below 1,626 has opened up the downside, but the question is - how much downside can we expect? We will find good support already here at 1,589 and very strong support at 1,527 only a clear break below here will open up the downside for a much deeper decline. As long as support at 1,527 protects the downside we should be looking for a break above 1,696 as indication, that a bottom is in place for a test of very strong resistance at 1,797 and only a break above here will open the upside for the next big move higher. So all in all we are locked in in quite a big range between 1.527 and 1.797 and only a break on either side of this range will indicate the next big move.

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