My count has pretty much worked out as expected. Yesterday we did see minor support at 125.50 protect the downside for one last rally higher. This last rally did go a little higher than the expected 126.78 (the high was at 126.95). The following decline from 126.95 does have impulsive characters, which tells me that the downside is where my main focus have to be at the moment. This is in sink with my count, which says that wave 4 is unfolding and is correcting the previous wave 3. The ideal target for this wave 4 is at 117.24, which also marks the bottom of wave four of one lessor degree. Short term I'm looking for minor resistance at 125.64 to protect the upside for a break below 124.52, that will confirm the next decline to 123.43 and 122.83.
The picture here is very muddy, but with the break below the support-line from 1.5506 my main focus is towards the downside and a new test of the base-channel support-line near 1.5700. In the larger picture I regard the entire overlapping structure since the high at 1.5905 in September 2012 as wave 2. That said it has taken much longer, than we could normally expect. Short term we will find resistance at 1.6038, which I expect will hold for a break below 1.5941 confirming a continuation lower towards 1.5898 and 1.5824 as the next minor targets.
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