As expected support at 125.73 protected the downside for a break above 126.83, but the failure to break above the former top at 127.70 shows us, that the loss of upside momentum is serious. The following break below 125.73 is the first indication, that we could have seen a top for wave 3. If this is the case we should see minor resistance 125.92 protect the upside for a new decline below 124.50 and ideally below 124.01 to confirm that the top is in place and wave 4 has taken over. However, as long as important support at 124.01 has not been broken there is a risk of a new rally higher towards 127.70 and possibly even towards the 128.98 - 129.19 area, where I expect a top will be found.
Here we saw the expected break above the minor resistance-line from 1.6359, but it was clearly a failure-break, which is of concern to my overall bullish count. That said, a break below 1.5990 is needed to invalidate my count and cause a reevaluation to a more bearish count. However, as long as important support at 1.5990 protects the downside I will be looking for a break above 1.6081 and more importantly a break above 1.6147, which will confirm a new rally higher towards 1.6278 and 1.6359 towards the ideal target at 1.6524.
No comments:
Post a Comment