We are currently locked within a triangle consolidation, which should ultimately break towards the downside for a test of our ideal corrective target at 117.28, where wave 4 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 3. Short term a break below 118.97 confirms, that the triangle consolidation is over and the final decline lower towards 117.28 is ongoing. However as long as minor support at 120.00 and more importantly support at 118.97 protects the downside we could see a move higher towards 120.77, but at no time should we see a break above 121.36 as that would indicate, the this is a b-wave triangle and call for a move higher to 122.74 before the final down move to 117.28 is seen.
The move above 1.5851 was a major surprise, but it does not change my call for a new powerful decline towards at least 1.5363 and more likely even lower towards 1.5234 once this ongoing expanded flat wave b correction is over. Short term I'm looking for one last minor rally towards 1.5930 before the final c-wave down takes over. That said, we should be aware, that a direct break below 1.5788 and more importantly a break below 1.5769 indicates, that wave c down is already developing.
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