EUR/USD
As we have seen a break below the channel support-line odds favors, that we have seen the top at wave E at 1.3711 and that a thrust out of the triangle is developing. The first real confirmation, that wave E is indeed in place will come by a break below support at 1.2998. The decline from 1.3711 should be impulsive in character. I will look for a decline down to 1.2930 followed by a correction towards 1.3183 from where the next powerful decline should take place.
Long term we should be looking for a decline towards the triangle support-line near 1.2100 and lower towards 1.0900 if the triangle count holds true.
Here we have seen a powerful decline below important support at 1.5234, which has confirmed the trust out of the triangle to the downside. As can be seen on the 8 hour chart the decline from 1.6381 is clearly impulsive and wave v of 1 waves an extended wave, as it became equal in length to the distance traveled from the top of wave i to the bottom of wave iii. Extended fifth waves normally calls for a sharp correction once finished and it seems at we have seen the bottom of wave v and 1 at 1.5169 today. I would be looking for wave 2 towards 1.5609 and maybe even 1.5688. At 1.5609 wave 2 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 1 and it's also in wave (ii) of v, which is a common target for the correction following an extended fifth wave.
Longer term we should be looking for a continuation down to the long term support-line near 1.4100.
Could have finally peaked at 14,058, just below the invalidation point for the ending diagonal at 14,098 (please see my post from February 5 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/02/blog-post.html) However, we need some more confirmation, that a top really is in place and that confirmation will be given if we break below 13,365 and more importantly on a break below 12,883.
That doesn't mean you shouldn't be prudent and turn more risk adverse here. What I'm saying is, that we need more confirmation, that a important long term top is in place for a much deeper decline.
Took another hit today and we are now closing in on very strong support at 1,526 if this support is broken clearly we could see a continuation down towards 1,300, but we should observe the strong support at 1.526 carefully first as this might well act as a springboard for the next rally higher.
What is there to say... As you can see on the chart above. The price action since the low near 84.00 lacks impulsiveness and I'm afraid we are going to see an even more narrow price-behavior for the coming months. To get things started we need a break out of the triangle. As long as we stay inside the triangle we must accept an erratic price-action with no real direction.
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