With the break below 124.01 we got the final confirmation, that wave 3 did indeed end at 127.70 and wave 4 now is in force. Wave 4 corrects wave 3 and as wave 3 clearly was an extended wave we should at least see a 23.6% retracement of wave 3, that would mean a correction down to 121.24. A more normal correction would be a 38.2% correction of wave 3, which would take us down to 117.24 this levels also marks the bottom of wave four of one lessor degree and is a very common retracement target. As wave 2 was a running flat correction we will be looking for a more simple structure in wave 4, something like a simple zig-zag correction. Short term we are looking for a break below support at 123.42 for a continuation down to 122.98, where we expect wave a of 4 to end. only a break above 124.50 will invalidate that call for a move towards the 125.70 - 126.05 area before down again.
The break below 1.5990 invalidated my bullish count and I have had to change my count to a more bearish count. This count says we are still in a very complex wave 2 correction, which should take us lower towards the base-channel support-line near 1.5700. Short term we are looking for strong resistance near 1.6072, which we expect will protect the upside for a break below 1.5988 and more importantly a break below 1.5945 confirming a continuation down towards 1.5750. A break above 1.6072 would be a surprise, but at no point can a break above 1.6147 be allowed under this count.
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