Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Important short term support at 124.54 protected the downside for a new move higher to 125.90, but I should only be a question of time before support at 124.54 is broken and the downside pressure is building for a new decline towards 122.89 and lower towards 121.26 and finally the ideal wave 4 target at 117.28. Short term I expect resistance at 125.49 for a break below 124.90, which will confirm the next attach on important support at 124.54. Ideally resistance at 125.90 will protect the upside for now, but only a break above 126.95 will invalidate my count and call for a new rally back towards 127.70 and higher.


EUR/NZD

After only a shallow wave ii we broke clearly above resistance at 1.5848, which confirmed the next rally higher. Short term I will look for a minor set-back to 1.5928 and maybe 1.5898 before the next rally higher through 1.5978 for a rally towards 1.6060 and 1.6112 as the next minor targets. That said, we must still be aware, that this rally could be part of the complex correction, that began at 1.6359 and if this is the case we most likely will only see a move slightly above 1.5978 before a decline breaks below 1.5802, which will confirm that the complex correction still is ongoing.

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