Sunday, February 3, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD


 EUR/JPY

The rally higher is relentless in its climb, but we are closing in on the next important target near 129.18 fast. As long as support at 124.83 protects the downside I will be looking for a break above resistance at 126.97 confirming the next rally higher towards resistance at 127.77 and the important resistance at 129.18. At 129.18 wave v will be 0.618 time the length of the distance traveled from the bottom of wave i to the top of wave iii. This is a very common target for wave v. Short term only a break below support at 124.83 will question the expected rally higher towards 129.18. A break below 124.83 will call for a continuation towards 123.87 and a break below here will confirm that wave v and wave 3 is already in place.

EUR/NZD

Ideally important support at 1.6043 will protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6158 confirming the next rally higher towards 1.6279 and 1.6359. Longer term I'm looking for this blue wave iii to reach 1.6518, where it will be 1.618 time longer than blue wave i. However, a break below 1.6043 will question this scenario and cause a decline towards 1.5936, but it will take a break below 1.5750 to invalidate my count and call for a much deeper decline.

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