It has been quite a while since I last said anything about this cross, but then it has been pretty boring, while the triangle was Building.
Many analyst has this triangle as a wave 4 triangle, but I don't like that idea and will stay with both my long term Count and my call from December 30 2012, where I said I preferred this triangle to be a bearish one (you can see my post from December 30 here).
As you can see I have changed my triangle a Little and find this an even better fit for my bearish view. That said, we are not completely out of the Woods yet, but a break below strong support at 1.0111 should do the job and accelerate the move to the downside. But were are we headed? No matter how I Count this I would at least expect a decline to 0.8170, but I would not be surprised to see an even deeper decline towards the 0.60 - 0.61 area, but for now keep an eye on important support at 1.0111 and if it breaks make sure you are short AUD or close your long position fast the lightning.
It has been even long time since I have said anything about the Kiwi dollar, but here too I have been bearish since the top way back in August 2011. Having worked with an other Count (still bearish NZD) I have changed, so that I now prefer wave 1 or A down from 0.8843 to 0.7484 was a leading diagonal and the following rally higher to 0.8677 was a flat wave 2 or B correction and that leaves us with wave 3 or C pointing hard down soon. I'm looking for a break below support at 0.8353 as the first good indication that wave 3 or C is under way, while a break below the support line at 0.8242 will confirm the decline for move lower to at least the 0.7750 - 0.78 area, but Again I would not be surprised to see a move much lower towards 0.6630 and maybe even lower.
No comments:
Post a Comment