Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

After one last decline in minor wave four of iii down to 131.53 we saw the expected rally higher through resistance at 132.40. We are now in wave five of iii of 5 and I still expect this rally in wave five of iii to reach its ideal target near 133.59 before we will see wave iv of 5 take over. As wave ii 5 was a flat correction I will be looking for a quick zig-zag correction towards 131.79 before the final rally higher in wave v of 5, which will have an ideal target near 135.47, this final rally will end the entire rally since the 94.10 low.

EUR/NZD

We keep making new highs, but we still lack the acceleration, that we would normally expect in wave three. I still think, that once the real momentum in the ongoing wave iii is released, it should be no problems breaking above the base channel resistance line for a very powerful rally higher. Once we have cleared the strong resistance in the 1.5918 - 1.5938 area we should see the top at 1.6359 tested soon after. Short term I'm looking for minor support at 1.5736 to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.5767 and a break above here confirms the next rally higher. However, if support at 1.5736 is broken it open for a slightly deeper correction to 1.5718 before the next rally higher.

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