Thursday, May 23, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We have seen a nice five wave decline from 133.81 down to 129.97, which marked wave i. The following correction of wave i has been a double zig-zag correction from 129.97 up to 132.52. the correction to 132.52 was slightly above the 61.8% retracement target for wave i at 132.34, this correction marks wave ii and we should now see a very powerful wave iii towards at least 128.67, but it will be more likely, that we would see an extension lower to 126.29, before wave iii is over. The following wave iv correction should be a shallow correction to 128.67 and then the final wave v of A down to 124.92. This five wave decline in wave A should be followed by a 61.8% correction in wave B to 130.41 before wave C lower takes over for a decline down to 121.52. This will be the road map for the unfolding wave II correction over the coming weeks.


EUR/NZD

We are in a position where an acceleration higher towards 1.6481 could take place any time. Short term I will be looking for a break above 1.6040 as the possible catalyst for this acceleration higher. Support is now found at 1.5955 and strong support at 1.5922, which I expect will protect the downside for the break above 1.6040 and an acceleration towards the target for red wave iii at 1.6481. Only a break below support at 1.5842 will confuse the overall bullish Picture.

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