Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The deep correction from 132.78 indicates, that wave iii of 5 ended early and that wave iv of 5 is ongoing. Wave iv of 5 could already have ended at 131.18, which a break above 131.91 will confirm. However, until we have a clear break above 131.91 we must accept, that wave iv could retrace a little more of wave iii, with a deeper correction down to 130.88 and maybe 130.43 (not likely), before wave v of 5 takes over. As wave iii ended a little early (below our ideal target at 133.59) we should expect wave v to end a little lower too. Wave v should as a minimum reach 133.20, but it is more likely, that we will see a top at 134.47.
EUR/NZD

The deep correction has forced me to change my count. Instead of a series of waves one's and two's the rally from 1.5261 has been a leading diagonal. This type of impulsive, is the only one that allows overlapping waves and still is impulsive. That means, that we currently are in red wave ii, which we expect will terminate in the 1.5466 - 1.5532 area, from where the powerful red wave iii is expected. Short term we will be looking for a move higher towards the 1.5667 - 1.5696 area from where we expect one more decline down to the 1.5466 - 1.5532 area, with 1.5466 as the most likely target, before red wave iii takes over.

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