Due a rate-cut from ECB the price-action was all over the place yesterday, but has it changed the overall picture? No! We saw the rally higher towards 130.00 (the top came in at 129.92) as wave d and then I expected wave e lower towards 129.00. Yes wave e has become deeper than I expected, but it has not broken important support at 127.05, which was the termination point of wave c only a break below 127.05 will indicate that the top, for the entire rally from 94.10 is already in place at 131.12. That said, I still favor the triangle scenario call for a thrust out of the triangle towards the upside for one last rally higher towards 135.47. Short term I will be looking for a move above 128.43 and higher towards 129.00 and 129.92.
Due to the rate-cut from ECB the price-action has been more extreme than I expected yesterday. We saw a slightly higher high at 1.5575, not quite the 1.5601 I was looking for, but it gave us an impulsive rally from 1.5252, which I view as wave (i) of iii. The ongoing wave (ii) of iii is allowed to correct all of wave wave (i), but not a single pip below, so important support at 1.5252 will have to hold or my bullish call is invalidated. However, I think that we will have a bottom in the 1.5300 - 1.5310 area, followed by a break above resistance at 1.5360, which will be the first good indication that wave (ii) is over, while a break above resistance at 1.5397 confirms the bottom for a move higher towards 1.5448 and 1.5575.
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