Weekly
8 Hourly
EUR/JPYWith the test of 133.81 yesterday, we have seen the end of wave 5 and wave I of the entire rally since the July 24 - 2012 low at 94.10. We are now entering a major correction as wave II. This correction should ideally correct to the bottom of wave 4 which comes in at 118.73, that (if you take a look at the chart above) will also be an almost a perfect 38.2% correction of the rally from 94.10 to 133.81. The rally from 94.10 to 133.81 has taken 44 week (Fibonacci number) and has corrected slightly more than 50% of the decline from 168.88 down to 94.10 (see the weekly chart above).
Short term we have already seen a 50% retracement of the decline from 133.81 - 131.94 with the test of 132.87 and should expect the next decline to at least 131.08 any time now. That said we must accept the possibility, that support at 131.94 protects the downside for a slightly higher correction to 133.10, but that is not my preferred count at this point.
As we have entered the powerful wave iii of 3 we should an acceleration towards the upside. We have seen a break above the base-channel resistance line as would be expected as wave three unfolds. The first target I'm looking for is at 1.6481, but longer term I'm looking for much higher levels as major wave C unfolds.
Short term minor resistance at 1.6024 could protect the upside for a minor and likely sub-normal correction towards 1.5979 and maybe 1.5939 before the next swing higher towards 1.6085 and 1.6134 on the way towards 1.6481.
No comments:
Post a Comment