Sunday, May 12, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD - Have wave 3 down begun?


EUR/USD

Quim has asked me for my EUR/USD Count. The above charts, show my long term count, which shows that we most likely have finished wave E of a major B-wave triangle.

Since wave E ended at 1.3711 we have seen wave 1 Down to 1.2745 and likely wave 2 to 1.3243. and we have now entered wave 3 down. If my count is correct we will see an acceleration towards the downside as wave 3 progresses and should soon see a break below the base channel support line. However, the alternate count is, that we only have seen wave a of 2 and wave b is unfolding and if this is the case we will soon see wave c higher, but that is my alternate count.

Where can we expect wave 3 to end. Wave 3 should at least decline to 1.2280, but I would expect wave 3 to be an extended wave and decline to 1.1683 and maybe even lower, but time will show. When will we know if wave 3 is unfolding. If we break clearly below the mid-line of the new base channel at 1.2840 wave 3 is likely unfolding and a break below 1.2745 confirms wave 3.


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